Maryland is a small state, but it has to be one of the toughest places to predict the impact of winter storms, given our geography, temperature ranges and the vagaries of storm tracks. Today's warnings and advisories are a case in point. Here is a sampling of the prognostications in effect for Central Maryland just before dawn this morning.

CARROLL, FREDERICK, HARFORD, NORTHERN and SOUTHERN BALTIMORE: MD-
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

EARLY THIS MORNING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.

PERIODS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES.

SNOW MAY END FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION COULD PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW LATER THIS EVENING.

STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY 1 AM ON FRIDAY.

ANNE ARUNDEL, HOWARD, MONTGOMERY, PRINCE GEORGES:
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS MORNING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED. SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND FREEZING.

PERIODS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SLEET...WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5
INCHES. IF MORE SLEET MIXES IN...AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS.

SNOW MAY END FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING... BUT
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION COULD PRODUCE AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW EARLY THIS EVENING.

STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IS EXPECTED BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, CECIL, KENT,

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ...

TRAVEL WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING RUSH IN MARYLAND,
SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. ... DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DEGRADED FOR THE
THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE.

A TOTAL OF 5 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST BY THE TIME THE STORM
EXITS LATER TONIGHT. WHILE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL THROUGH A GOOD
PART OF THE NIGHT...THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE DONE BETWEEN 6 AND 9
PM THIS EVENING.

CALVERT, CHARLES, ST. MARYS:

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVE
NING...

LIGHT SNOW WILL START OFF THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
AT TIMES SNOW WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SLEET. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
1 TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING.

TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES... EXACT AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE
STORM WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH SLEET MIXES IN TO HOLD DOWN
ACCUMULATIONS... AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION IN GENERAL MOVES THIS FAR
NORTH WITH THE STORM.

You get the picture. Add in western Maryland and the lower Eastern Shore, and the picture gets even more complex. So, no matter how much snow you have to push off your car for the slog home tonight, hats off today to the folks in Sterling.