Just as Central Maryland begins to shake off the asterisk-laden "record-breaking" snowstorm that struck Friday and Saturday, we turn to face yet more "accumulating snow" forecasters say will reach us Tuesday and Wednesday. Some models suggest we could see as much as another 10 inches. More or less
Yes, my weary diggers, the National Weather Service is advising us of "accumulating wintry precipitation," beginning sometime after noon on Tuesday. The chances, for now, are rated at 60 percent for Tuesday, rising to 70 percent Tuesday night and fading to 30 percent Wednesday.
The folks at Sterling, as is their policy, are not yet venturing accumulation totals. Storm tracks and rain lines remain pretty uncertain. But this morning's forecast discussion describes this new storm in a way that sounds a bit like the one that struck here Friday, except not as intense.:
"HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. ...THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHEN THESE SYSTEMS WOULD PHASE AND
CONSEQUENTLY HOW STRONG THE COASTAL LOW WILL GET BEFORE MOVING OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.
"EITHER WAY...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THESE SYSTEMS PHASE
AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
"ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FROM NEAR THE CITIES OF WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS WITH THIS
SYSTEM BECAUSE A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE TIMING OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS
PHASING TOGETHER WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR."
Okay, so that's the NWS. Our newest professional contributor, Eric the Red, is thinking the new storm will clock in with something like 4 to 8 inches of new snow. Says he:
"Models are showing a very disturbing trend for Tuesday. They more or less replay this storm, but with a bit less precipitation. The latest GFS [a forecast model] as well as last night's Canadian and NOGAPS [more models] show an upper-air low approaching from the west, while a secondary low forms to our south and moves to the Mid-Atlantic coast. At this early juncture, this kinda has a 4-8" look to it... with the BIG snow headed for New England.
'Some prelim models...
'WRF - Has secondary low forming at the mouth of the Chesapeake and moving slowly up the coast, with liquid equivalent (QPF - which stands for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) of 0.50-1.00"... which if all snow would be a 5-10". The bulls eye is east of DC.
'RSM - Same idea, but begins to drift the storm back down the coast at the end of its forecast cycle. QPF is 0.50-1.00 (5-10"), with a bulls eye in northeast MD.
'PSU-Eta - Same idea, but as the energy jumps from the Ohio Valley to the MD coast, the pcp misses us. We've seen this happen before... so it's not out of the question. QPF - less than 0.10... with little if any snow.
'Canadian - Ouch. Winds up another stem winder off the Delmarva coast, and punds the region with another not-quite-as-bad big hitter... say 8-16".
NOGAPS: a bit farther offshore, but still paints the area with a modest snowfall.
'GFS - The 12z [latest] is not in yet, but last night's 00z run (7 pm w/balloon data) is disturbing... with a strong secondary low forming at the mouth of the Chesapeake and movg slowly northeast. The GFS' QPF is over an inch for central MD... indicating a Canadian-model-like 8-16"
'Still time to sort all this out, but needless to say, another 1 footer would be a back breaker fer sure. I'll keep ya posted. Right now, as I mentioned before, if I had to pick a number... 4-8", with precipitation starting Tues afternoon and lasting into Weds morning."
UPDATE, 11 a.m., from Eric the Red: 7 am/w balloon data: GFS clobbers us. It has 1 to 2" liquid... which if all snow, would be another blizzard.... 10-20". In all honesty, let's hope that doesn't happen. I like snow... but even I have my limits. E AccuWeather.com doesn't have a snow map out yet for our part of the country. But their MeteoMadness blogger, Henry Margusity, seems to be putting the deepest snows to our north, leaving us in a 3- to 6-inch zone.
doesn't have a snow map out yet for our part of the country. But their MeteoMadness blogger, , seems to be putting the deepest snows to our north, leaving us in a 3- to 6-inch zone.
Mr. Foot's Forecast hasn't gone there yet, but they do seem to be anticipating 4 inches or more. Hope to hear from his team soon.
(SUN PHOTOS/Frank Roylance/Path to my door/Claire Cohn - Thanks!)